Alaska Salmon Harvest Summary and Forecast Analysis
-Statewide, 2015 was a record salmon harvest at 1.07 billion pounds, and 28 million pounds greater than 2013.
-Projected harvests for Southeast are 366,000 Chinook, 1,273,000 Sockeye, 2,831,000 Coho, 34,000,000 Pink, 11,349,000 Keta for a total of 49,819,000 salmon.
-2016 projected harvest is 161 million salmon and would be the largest even-year harvest since 2010.
-In 2016, Bristol Bay’s forecast is up 10% above the 10-year average.
-Typically, most of the Chinook and Coho salmon harvested in the State come from Southeast.
Alaska Salmon Market News
-An algal bloom in Chile killed over 25 million farmed salmon, lowering the projected global supply of Atlantic salmon by 6% and Chilean Coho production by 29%. Chilean Coho salmon are primary competitors for Alaska Sockeye salmon in the Japanese market.
-Over two-thirds of Alaska’s salmon is sold to export markets competing with salmon from Russia, Norway, Chile, and others.
-In the past six months, the US dollar has weakened compared the Japanese yen and the euro.
-The Norwegian kroner and Russian ruble, however, have weakened in comparison with the US dollar.
-Russia now imports more salmon from Chile, as the imports embargo on the US, Norway, and a few other countries continues.
-Due to the embargo, US imports of Norwegian farmed salmon have doubled since 2013.
Alaska Salmon Industry Analysis
-Ex-vessel value fell approximately 41% between 2013 and 2015, which produced the two largest salmon harvests on record.
-Value declined due to large pink and sockeye harvests, a stronger US dollar, the Russian embargo, processors facing excess inventory leading to less working capital and declining wholesale prices.
-Ex-vessel value break down by species was 55% Sockeye, 23% Pinks, 11% Keta, 7% Coho, and 4% Chinook for 2014-2015.
-Wholesale volume in pounds was 60% frozen head and gut, 21% canned, 8% fillets, 6% fresh head and gut, and 5% roe for 2014-2015.
Alaska Seafood Export Market Analysis
-China is Alaska’s largest export market by tonnage and value, however, 80-90% is re-processed and re-exported to other global markets.
-In terms of final consumption Europe and Japan are Alaska’s largest export markets. South Korea and Canada are the next largest export markets.
-In 2015, Alaska seafood was exported to 102 countries.
-Species promoted globally by ASMI include: pollock, salmon, crab, sea cucumber, geoduck, black cod, yellowfin sole, scallops, perch, rockfish, shrimp, and Pacific cod.